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Pandemic Flu

The Government’s Worst Scenario

One major scenario worries governments more than others: Pandemic

A pandemic is a world-wide virus which kills major portions of the population.  It happens approximately every hundred years.  The last major one was around 1918.

The pandemic lasted from June 1917 to December 1920, spreading to the Arctic and  even remote Pacific islands. Between 50 to 100 million humans died, making it one of the deadliest natural disasters in human history. If we use the low end of 50 million people, about 3% of the world’s population (1.8 billion at the time), died of the disease. Some 500 million, or 1/3 were infected.  The Earth is approaching 7 Billion people.  (3% would be about 25 million dead – 2.5 Billion ill.)

Scientists took tissue samples from frozen victims buried in the arctic.  They were able to reproduce the virus for study. The virus killed via a cytokine storm (overreaction by the body’s immune system) which explains its unusually severe nature and the concentrated age profile of its victims. Ironically the strong immune systems of young adults ravaged the body, whereas the weaker immune systems of children and middle-aged adults resulted in fewer deaths.  If you want to know why the US Government was so freaked out by the flu last year – and still is – this is why.

The UK and US  TV and Movies have run programs alerting the public.  “Survivors”, The Colony, from documentaries to the Hallmark Channel – all provide warnings of the dire consequences.

One theory says this “H1N1: threat was blown out of proportion to make a lot of money for pharmaceutical companies.  While this may be true, that storyline drew the media attention and took the focus off of the real threat.
The real threat is much more insidious, and continually perplexes the brightest military leaders at the Pentagon.  Imagine for a second that a particularly nasty strain of influenza develops…like the deadly 2009 strain that hit the Ukraine labeled “Viral Hemorrhagic Pneumonia.”  It could be because of natural events, or because of malicious work in a laboratory. The origin doesn’t really matter.  What matters is that it spreads easily and has a high probability of “turning into” pneumonia.

Pretend a Virus Turns Pandemic – With mass transportation, the virus moving quickly and roughly 10% of the cases turn into pneumonia.  Schools shut down.  People stay home. Stores and malls are deserted, sports and music events are empty, and even churches are sparsely attended.  The effect on the economy is devastating … even if NOBODY dies.

  • The US averages 31 beds for every 10,000 prople.  If 1 in 30 people get the flu and 1 in 10 of them gets pneumonia, every hospital bed in the US will be full of pneumonia cases.
  • According to the CDC, in a typical year, 5-20% of the population gets the flu, so it is definitely within the realm of possibility for 3% to have the flu at the same time.
  • Since hospitals normally keep 80-90% of the beds occupied.  There are more like 4-5 beds per 10,000.  It’s quite certain a moderate to severe flu outbreak could quickly overwhelm our medical system.

As the population realized the severity of this outbreak, people would be reluctant to go to work or send their children to school.  Let me use two examples and I could have picked any other business.
Pretend you notice as you are leaving work that several people are out sick and others are coughing.  On TV you hear this flu is a Pandemic.  You are well supplied so you decide to take a few days off and stay home with the spouse and kids.  Smart – don’t expose yourself to the infection.  If you are a Power Plant or Water Purification worker, and others follow your thinking, who will provide clean water and electricity?  How long could your family survive without going to the stores which may be empty because their employees feel the same as you?  What would you do for heating, cooking and sanitation?

Is Pandemic a probable scenario?  That’s not up for debate; it’s only a matter of time.

When I was researching this article, Pandemic was one of the scenarios almost everyone agrees upon. Best case guesses say it should pass within 90 to 120 days.  The Spanish Flu lasted 2.5 years.  I’m preparing for at least 6 months.  What will you do?
You might see this as simply fiction; that’s fine.  But if you realize the potential for it, then I suggest you figure out solutions to place if a pandemic does happen.
There are many approaches to this.  For the flu, I recommend stocking pharmaceutical, vitamin, mineral, herbal, naturopathic, and/or homeopathic treatments for pneumonia and other sicknesses on hand.
The important thing to realize is – If a major disaster happens, you’ll have to take care of yourself! The government will be overwhelmed.  The more prepared with supplies, training and knowledge you collect now, the better chance you’ll have of surviving later.

3 Responses to “Pandemic Flu”

  1. Melodee Dahley says:

    Absolutely u got this one down correct man.. Keeped me entertained for ages.

  2. LED Strip says:

    There are always something we do not know about the world. What we can do is to live this moment well, whether the 2012 is the end or not.

  3. Jase says:

    Very balanced and non alarmist.

    I like.

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